Although I had mentioned this in the comments section of an entry on the Armenia Election Monitor at the beginning of December, a meeting with EurasiaNet’s Central Asia and Caucasus Editor last night reminded me of it once again. She asked me for my opinion on the election so far and I said pretty much I’ve been writing, but added that for now, I don’t see that Levon Ter Petrosian — or any of the other candidates for that matter — stand a chance of winning against Serzh Sarkisian.

Factor in Ter Petrosian’s low popularity rating in Armenia — seemingly below 10 percent whatever sympathetic journalists might have you believe — and the fact that street protests have always been the tactic of choice for the radical opposition, and there’s not really much chance for any “colored revolution” to occur let alone succeed. There’s also one other factor that makes the question of street protests all the more difficult after the presidential election on 19 February 2008.

That is, as Karabakh Open reported, it will be the 20th Anniversary of the Karabakh Movement the following day and there are plans to stage a number of events to celebrate the fact. It is unclear from the article whether the celebrations will be held in Armenia, Karabakh or both.

However, as the 20th Anniversary of the Sumgait pogroms occurs nine days later, it looks as though events will stretch through the entire week following the election. One has to wonder how possible it is for the opposition — radical or not — to stage effective protests when other Armenians will be celebrating and mourning two of the most significant dates for an independent post-Soviet Armenia immediately after the presidential vote.

20TH ANNIVERSARY OF MOVEMENT WILL BE MARKED THE DAY AFTER THE ARMENIAN ELECTION

KarabakhOpen
03-12-2007 10:33:23

The government set up a state committee to prepare the celebration of the 20th anniversary of the Karabakh movement. The starting day is February 20 when in 1988 the Soviet of People’s Deputies of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region and Shahumyan extended a request to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR for the unification with Armenia.

By the way, the Armenian presidential election will be held on February 19, and the outcome may influence the celebration. Especially that most controversies among the candidates of the Karabakh issue. What will the stance of the new Armenian government on the settlement of the Karabakh issue be?

Will the stance of the Armenian government on the Karabakh issue change 20 years after the movement? What new can the Armenian government offer Karabakh in the current situation? The options are quite few.

Well, it has to be asked. Will “the outcome […] influence the celebration” or vice-versa? Or maybe the fact that Ter Petrosian was one of the leaders of the Karabakh Committee will work in his favor, who knows? For sure, however, if the streets are full of radical opposition supporters following the 19 February 2008 presidential election in Armenia at the same time as the 20th Anniversaries of the Karabakh Movement and Sumgait are observed, is it going to look good for the country?

Sure, the argument would be that the government should therefore not falsify the election, but as the radical opposition have only seemed only concerned with “colored revolutions” since 2004 and didn’t even bother to “campaign” during last year’s parliamentary election, one thing is certain. Even if there is or there isn’t support in society and regardless of whether the vote is relatively clean or not, if they don’t win they’re going to protest anyway. They always do.

Anyway, it’s interesting to note that as far back as October, the U.S. Embassy in Armenia was figuring on 17 February — a Sunday — as the date for the election so that a non-working day wouldn’t have to be declared, I have to wonder if the eventual decision by the government to hold the election on 19 February isn’t more than coincidental. Of course, maybe I’ve been here too long and am buying into the conspiracy-theory mindset.

I mean, there are still many people who believe that Ter Petrosian’s comeback was orchestrated by the authorities in the first place, and I’m sure even these anniversary events will be viewed in that context by them as well. Anyway, gut reaction is that this election is going to go one of two ways. Either it will be disastrous for the opposition because attempts to polarize the vote between Serzh and Levon will favor the former or it will mean the population choosing the “lesser of two evils.”

However, unless the pre-election campaign period marks a significant turnaround in support for Ter Petrosian or other opposition candidates, that looks likely to be Serzh Sarkisian. Time will tell, but even if these events to mark the 20th Anniversary of the Karabakh Movement are held in the territory itself rather than in Armenia, I wonder how much they might influence post-election proceedings? Could they also favor Ter Petrosian rather than more hard line groups?

Comments welcomed.