Levon Ter-Petrossian Rally, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

That there would be mass demonstrations immediately after the presidential election held last week in Armenia was known long ago. Many observers also figured on yet another attempt by the radical opposition to stage a colored revolution of the type seen in Georgia and Ukraine. However, few expected it to succeed, but a week after the 19 February vote, the situation is now gearing up for what might be serious confrontation between opposition supporters and the authorities.

At the heart of the post-election dispute lies the issue of succession to the incumbent and outgoing president, Robert Kocharian, who is unable to run for a third term in office under the constitution. Indeed, the 19 February presidential election was seen by most critics of the government as merely a formality for Kocharian to pass on power to his trusted lieutenant, prime minister Serge Sargsyan.

However, with many such as The Armenian Observer believing that Sargsyan would be unable to pass the 50 percent + 1 threshold to win outright on election day, a second round was expected by most independent observers. Analysts and journalists alike were all convinced of that eventuality.

I still see Serzh Sargsyan as the front runner - he might have close to 35% of voter sympathy. […] I have a feeling, that excellent PR and aggressive campaigning finally did it - and Levon Ter-Petrossian now has perhaps 20% of vote. […]

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

Levon Ter-Petrossian Post-Election Demonstration, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Less than a week since the 19 February presidential election in Armenia and it feels as though the country is entering the final phase of the battle between president-elect, Serge Sargsyan, and the first president, Levon Ter-Petrossian. The supporters of both claim victory for their candidate.

Regardless, while the authorities are beginning to show some of panic with the what appear to be the illegal detention of three of Ter-Petrossian’s team, the rallies in Yerevan’s Liberty Square continue unabated. And if Public TV and Radio fails to report them adequately or even at all, the online media does.

RFE/RL reported on yesterday’s rally.

Ter-Petrosian urged Armenians to attend his rallies in even larger rallies and thereby put the authorities under greater pressure to call a repeat election.

“We must show these authorities that the whole people don’t accept them,” he told an estimated 40,000 people who gathered in the city’s Liberty Square. “We must show the entire world that the Armenian people do not tolerate such an unworthy and blasphemous government.”

“This square must be full day and night until the victorious end of our struggle,” he said.

[…]

In his speech, Ter-Petrosian also accused the United States and Europe of turning a blind eye to what he described as large-scale fraud that marred the Armenian election. “The West doesn’t care about democracy here,” he said. “The West is not sincere in trying to establish democracy in Armenia. They need a weak, dictatorial regime so that they can always have leverage against it.”

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Levon Ter-Petrossian Post-Election Demonstration, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Apologies in advance if the title seems a little sexist or flippant, but it’s true. All successful political movements throughout history have involved women, and especially young ones. Indeed, during opposition protest movements staged in 2003, 2005 and 2007, one of the main criticisms and reasons for their failure wasn’t just inadequate and indecisive leadership, but also the lack of young people.

The same is true when it comes to analyzing the makeup of opposition demonstrations based on gender and it’s all part of what WILLisms calls the Babe Theory of Political Movements.

The babe theory of political movements essentially holds that:

Where and when there are hot babes, an exponential number of men will show up. If 100 cute girls with voluptuous bodies are protesting for freedom, you can count on a thousand men being there as well.

If sexy babes are involved in a peaceful political movement, it has a far greater chance of succeeding. If there are no good-looking women involved, the odds of a successful (and peaceful) movement fall dramatically.

Where and when alluring women are excluded from demonstrations, you can expect greater chances of strife, rioting, and failure.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Polling Station, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

It’s now nearly two in the morning and it’s been a tiring day. However, while report after report of violations and falsification comes in, in the seven polling stations I visited today in the Kentron and Arabkir districts of the city, voting was pretty much calm. That’s not to say that violations didn’t occur elsewhere, or even that all was perfect in these particular polling stations, but rather that the environment for voting was peaceful.

Probably the worst violation I saw, although I’m not sure it goes against the electoral code or not, was a number of mothers allowing their children to vote for them. Otherwise, the main problems were pretty much what I’ve described already. Namely that means most PEC members, proxies and observers not wearing identification badges, the inability of voters to queue properly, the PEC’s apparent lack of concern with keeping some order in their polling stations, and the absence of a parallel voter count in all but two cases.

That is not to diminish the necessity of investigating allegations of serious voting irregularities elsewhere, of course, but more to simply assess the situation in the seven polling stations I visited. Personally speaking, the lack of clearly identified authorized persons in polling stations was the most serious issue I encountered. Otherwise, proxies were videoing voting even if in some of the most drearily lit stations they had set up their own lighting.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Polling Station, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

At 4pm in the afternoon, candidates for today’s presidential election have already cast their votes. Ironically, the incumbent but outgoing president, Robert Kocharian, voted in the morning at the polling station off Yerevan’s central Mashtots Avenue which presidential candidates Serge Sargsyan and Levon Ter-Petrossian cast their ballots a few hours later.

The polling station was obviously overcrowded with journalists, photographers and film crews. After a slow start in Komitas, turnout seemed high with 11 percent of eligible voters casting their ballots by 11am. As of 2pm, RFE/RL reports that 36.5 percent had voted.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Vahan Hovannisian Pre-Election Campaign Youth Meeting, Moscow Cinema, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

The final pre-election campaign meeting by governmental favorite, prime minister Serge Sargsyan, was originally billed as taking place in Yerevan’s Republic Square. However, the swarm of people walking up the central Abovian street and Northern Avenue indicated something different and that was indeed the case. Probably in response to Levon Ter-Petrossian’s rally which drew as many as 40,000 people the day before, Sargsyan’s had been shifted there to once again participate in what can only be described as the numbers game.

That wasn’t unexpected and was actually quite predictable, in fact. Indeed, in such a game it was inevitable that calling upon a variety of administrative resources, the prime minister would win in lieu of actual proper campaigning. Not only did Sargsyan manage to fill Liberty Square, but people were also gathered on much of the territory outside the park surrounding Yerevan Opera — including Northern Avenue. A1 Plus criticizes the prime minister on the basis that many people were from the regions of Armenia, but if truth be known, so too were many of former president Levon Ter-Petrossian, ARF-D candidate Vahan Hovannisian, and Orinats Yerkir’s Artur Baghdasarian.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Vahan Hovannisian Pre-Election Campaign Youth Meeting, Moscow Cinema, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

This weekend saw the last two days of campaigning for Tuesday’s presidential election in Armenia and it was always going to be busy. Yesterday, former president Levon Ter-Petrossian rallied his people in Liberty Square before the prime minister held his this afternoon. Elsewhere, another candidate, Tigran Karapetian, rallied a few hundred at the Matenadaran while Artur Baghdasarian had to settle for Armenia’s second largest city of Gyumri given that he couldn’t do so yesterday and the Yerevan municipality didn’t grant him permission to hold a rally in the center of the capital today.

Becoming tired of all these rallies which usually don’t amount to much more than mutual mudslinging and playing the numbers game, it was nice to start the day with a rally by a few hundred youth from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) affiliated Nikol Aghbalian Student Union. Marching in red jackets to recorded ARF songs blaring from a loudspeaker attached to an accompanying van, the young Dashnaks walked from Komitas to the Moscow Cinema in the city center, passing out campaign leaflets for the ARF-D candidate, Vahan Hovannisian.

More impressively, they did it without malice, without hate. They campaigned in high spirits, in song, and with smiles on their faces — something that is not common here, but very welcomed to say the least. Indeed, the action was just another positive development introduced into Armenia by the party which has already set a precedent for mature campaigning and the use of Western style pre-election tactics. Whether it will help them at the polls is another matter, of course, but it makes a change from the deeply depressing and boring mass rallies favored by most of the other candidates.

Levon Ter-Petrossian Pre-Election Campaign Rally, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Today saw the final pre-election campaign rally by former president Levon Ter-Petrossian in Yerevan’s Liberty Square. There was no doubt that it was going to be large, although I personally don’t think it was much different than last week’s. Regardless, according to E-Channel’s guide to estimating crowds in Liberty Square, I’d put it at approximately 35,000.

However, one international news wire put it at 50,000 as did E-Channel, while EurasiaNet says 30-40,000. Given that estimating crowds is not an exact science, I’ll split the difference and call it 40,000. Regardless, it was one of the largest pre-election political rallies I’ve attended in Armenia in nine years of living here, the others being Ter-Petrossian last week as well as those staged by Vahan Hovannisian and Artur Baghdasarian. For sure, in the numbers game in Liberty Square, Ter-Petrossian holds the record.

This is especially the case given the way in which the organizers of every political rally either incorrectly judges the size or inflates the figure to such an extent that it is not only incredible, but also physically impossible. Levon Ter-Petrossian’s people in the form of Nikol Pashinian put the number of those in attendance at 230,000. A1 Plus told me later in the day that the number was then increased to over 300,000 people. I shouldn’t be surprised, but I have to be honest, it never ceases to amaze me.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Just a quick note to remind readers that with the 19 February presidential election in Armenia just a week away, all blogging activity can be found on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Vahan Hovannisian Pre-Election Campaign Rally, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

It used to be that pro-opposition journalists constantly referred to attendances at a series of rallies by former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian, as being an indication of a high level of support in the country. Forgetting the fact that estimates for those rallies at anywhere between 20-100,000 were widely off the mark, the main problem with such an approach was forgotten.

That is, assembling what is in reality anywhere between 10-15,000 people, mainly consisting of actual supporters, is not so difficult and in the past two weeks, two other leading candidates for the 19 February presidential election in Armenia not only managed to likely exceed the number for Ter-Petrossian, but also eclipse them in terms spirit as well as by assembling a more diverse crowd made up of all ages and classes.

On Sunday that was evident at Artur Baghdasarian’s pre-election campaign rally in Liberty Square, and also at yesterday’s meeting held by Vahan Hovannisian and Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D). Despite the impressive showing in terms of rallies, in terms of support in society Baghdasarian narrowly leads Ter-Petrossian with 13.4 percent according to a British Populus poll, while Hovannisian has 7.6 percent.

Regardless, the ARF-D has shown itself to be better organized than any of the other challengers to the prime minister, Serge Sargsyan, especially when it comes to youth, and more mature in terms of actual campaigning. While Baghdasarian and especially Ter-Petrossian appear hell-bent on antagonizing the situation to the point of making clashes inevitable, Hovannisian has been critical, but also more aware of the need to attract votes by treating the electorate with a certain amount of respect.

Despite it’s previous obsession with seemingly only covering the pre-election campaign of Ter-Petrossian and Serge Sargsyan, RFE/RL’s English-language web site has more.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) rallied thousands of people in Yerevan on Friday to shore up voter support for its presidential candidate Vahan Hovannisian and urge Armenians to reject their current and former leaders.

Hovannisian, joined by other Dashnaktsutyun leaders, again sought to present himself as a viable alternative to the two mutually hostile camps that have taken the center stage in the Armenian presidential race. He also deplored a weak rule of law and a perceived lack of democracy in Armenia and pledged to “restore constitutional order” if elected president.

“The existing unjust and unfree situation allows the former authorities hiding their sins with that injustice to try to again play with the feelings of our people and base their election campaign on hatred,” Hovannisian, attacking former President Levon Ter-Petrosian and his allies.

“They are being met with the same hatred,” he said, referring to the country’s present leadership. “The behavior of the current authorities, which is the other extreme, contains the same hatred.”

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Artur Baghdasarian Pre-Election Campaign Rally, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

It was the largest pre-election campaign meeting in Yerevan’s Liberty Square to date. The organizers say 100,000 people gathered to hear Orinats Yerkir party leader and presidential candidate Artur Baghdasarian speak, but as we know that the area in the park behind the Yerevan Opera can’t hold more than 20-25,000 maximum, that’s pretty unlikely. It was nonetheless at least as large as any rally by another presidential contender, Levon Ter-Petrossian, and probably bigger.

Of course, as we saw in last year’s parliamentary election when Heritage favored actual campaigning to gathering as many existing supporters in one place for the media to cover, numbers aren’t everything. However, opinion polls currently show Baghdasarian in second place to the prime minister as election day draws closer. Moreover, like rallies staged by nearly every other candidate to date, those supporters gathered together, as if the size of a crowd you can assemble in Liberty Square equates to actual voting on polling day, were not just from Yerevan.

Even so, the meeting was impressive. Compared to similar meetings held by Ter-Petrossian, those attending were more representative of the broad spectrum of Armenian society and for sure they were louder and more enthusiastic. Significantly, among them were many more youth. Of note compared to other candidates contesting the vote against the presidential favorite Serge Sargsyan, Baghdasarian’s Orinats Yerkir is one of only two opposition parties currently represented in the Armenian National Assembly. The party polled 95,324 or 7.1 percent of the vote.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.