As mentioned before on this blog here, here and here, there is some speculation that the Armenian President, Robert Kocharian, will not hand over power so easily when he is forced to leave office in 2008. For sure, many analysts expect Kocharian to effectively hand over power to his trusted lieutenant, Defense Minister Sezh Sarkisyan, but recent comments from the presidential office imply that the 52-year-old leader might also seek another government position. Writing for the Jamestown Foundation, RFE/RL’s Emil Danielyan has more.
The remarks only stoked mounting speculation that Kocharian has set his sights on the post of prime minister, which he held for almost a year before being catapulted to the Armenian presidency in 1998. According to Hmayak Hovannisian, a maverick parliamentarian reputedly linked to the ruling regime, this is part of a scenario drawn up by the country’s leadership. “After the parliamentary elections [slated for next spring] Serge Sarkisian will become prime minister and [current Prime Minister] Andranik Markarian [will become] speaker of the National Assembly,” Hovannisian claimed at a May news conference. “What will Robert Kocharian do? Who else is to occupy the post of prime minister when Serge Sarkisian becomes president of the republic?”
It is widely assumed that Kocharian’s preferred successor is Sarkisian, Armenia’s second most powerful man. Both men are natives of Karabakh who governed the disputed Armenian-populated territory during its secessionist war with Azerbaijan before ending up in top positions in Yerevan. They have jointly weathered many political storms and share a vested interest in keeping their bitter political foes at bay. Either man’s downfall would almost certainly mean the other’s exit from the political arena.
Sarkisian increasingly acts like a president-in-waiting, tying the state apparatus, wealthy businessmen, and the broader “power class” to the governing Republican Party of Armenia (HHK), his main support base. He is also organizing public relations stunts such as high-profile visits to Armenian army units, meetings with soldiers’ parents, and academic debates on Armenia’s new national security doctrine, which was drafted by Sarkisian. His early November visit to Iraq, ostensibly aimed at inspecting a small contingent of Armenian troops stationed there, was widely seen as an attempt to win U.S. support for his presidential ambitions.
The question is whether Sarkisian is willing to share power with Kocharian in the event of his victory in the 2008 election. Kocharian may well be trying to make sure that the powerful defense chief remains dependent on him after 2008 by covertly sponsoring a new and extremely ambitious party led by one of Armenia’s wealthiest “oligarchs,” Gagik Tsarukian. The party, called Prosperous Armenia, has been busy in recent months, distributing large-scale relief aid to low-income farmers, providing free medical services, sponsoring pop concerts, and engaging in other “charitable” activities. Tsarukian already claims to have the largest following in the country as a result of what his detractors, including some HHK leaders, regard as massive vote buying.
So much for democracy, then. Still, as some cynics argue, Armenia’s population will get the leaders and authorities they deserve, especially if they’re willing to sell their votes for a sack of potatoes or an outright bribe of 3,000 drams (about $8). Again, it is this question of succession to Kocharian and the continuation of the system in place in Armenia that makes next year’s parliamentary elections so important to everyone. The Jamestown article is here.