In a matter of a few hours at time of writing, Georgians will go to the polls to vote in a presidential election called prematurely after a state of emergency followed opposition protests in Tbilisi at the beginning of November. After Mikhail Saakashvili came to power when street protests forced his predecessor, Eduard Shevardnadze, to resign during the so-called “Rose Revolution,” things have improved significantly in Georgia.

However, many Georgians are quite openly critical of Saakashvili. While still believing in the premise of the 2003 revolution and still convinced of the need for reform, many consider him mentally unstable and even question the official account of the circumstances surrounding prime minister Zurab Zhvania’s untimely death in 2005. Even so, despite some setbacks, Georgia was considered a beacon of relative democracy in the South Caucasus.

Until November 2007, that is. When riot police used excessive force, tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse an opposition rally in downtown Tbilisi, concerns about democracy in Georgia came to the fore. Today, the former Soviet republic’s democratic credentials will again be put to the test. However, the BBC reports that the opposition are already crying foul.

The main opposition candidate in Georgia’s snap presidential election has accused the authorities of preparing to rig Saturday’s vote.

“What is currently happening in Georgia is not a free election,” Levan Gachechiladze said in a statement broadcast on Georgian television.

[…]

Mr Gachechiladze complained that “we cannot use media outlets or promotional means”.

He added that a “smear campaign” was being staged against the opposition in the media.

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In two days Georgia will go to the polls to elect its president after street protests in downtown Tbilisi turned violent and a State of Emergency was declared. For many, the use of tear gas and riot police to disperse an opposition protest was way too heavy handed, but according to the Georgian constitution, after the State of Emergency was lifted, new elections had to be held.

Article 46

[…]

2. In case of introduction of a state of emergency or martial law throughout the whole territory of the state, elections of the President of Georgia, the Parliament of Georgia or other representative bodies of Georgia shall be held upon the cancellation of the state. In case of introduction of a state of emergency in a certain part of the state the Parliament of Georgia shall adopt a decision on holding the elections throughout the other territories of the state. (acquired a new wording by the Constitutional Law of Georgia of.6 February 2004).

In retrospect, one has to wonder if that wasn’t the reason why Saakashvili reacted in such a fashion although he is also notorious for what can be at best be described as being a “hot head.” Regardless, whichever way you look at it, the 5 January 2008 presidential election is described by the Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR) as a “vote on the record of Mikheil Saakashvili.”

As Georgia heads for a presidential election on January 5, the incumbent Mikheil Saakashvili is the favourite, but there is no certainty that he will win an easy victory.

Opinion polls give radically different assessments of the chances of Saakashvili and his six rivals, of whom businessman Levan Gachechiladze, the candidate nominated by a coalition of nine opposition parties, stands the best chance of victory. Gachechiladze is standing more as an “anti-presidential candidate”, and has pledged to change the constitution to abolish the institution of presidency if he wins.

[…]

In January 2004, Saakashvili was elected with 98 per cent of the vote. This time there are predictions that he may fail to collect more than half the vote on January 5, and will be forced into a second round on January 19.

The Ukrainian think-tank Common European Cause, which is planning to conduct an exit poll, has predicted that Gachechiladze will collect 30 per cent of the vote and Saakashvili 16 per cent.

By contrast, the Georgian Business Consulting Group, BCG, which did a survey of voters on behalf of Saakashvili’s campaign headquarters, forecast that the incumbent would be re-elected with 61 per cent of the vote. The opposition has disputed the objectivity of the survey.

The election resembles as much a referendum on the presidency of Saakashvili as a contest between candidates.

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A few weeks ago PanArmenian.Net reported that two representatives from Armenia will observe the 5 January 2008 presidential election in Georgia as part of the OSCE/ODIHR international observation mission. The web site of the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Republic of Armenia named at least one of those representatives as Atom Mkhitaryan from the CEC’s Department of Foreign Relations.

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With Georgia’s presidential election just three days away, it’s probably worth pointing you all in the direction of EurasiaNet’s special coverage of the vote called prematurely after clashes in downtown Tbilisi two months ago. Interestingly, while the pre-election campaign by all those involved looks far slicker than what we’ve been used to in Armenia, it’s also interesting to note that Georgia appears to fall short in other areas.

For example, while USAID will be commissioning an exit poll for the 19 February presidential election in Armenia, the exit poll in Georgia will be commissioned by the broadcast media. Of course, there are concerns raised by the opposition and sympathetic media outlets here, but even so, the independence of such polls in Georgia is perhaps more understandably being called into question.

The poll, officially meant to act as a safeguard against election fraud, was commissioned by four television companies - the state-financed Georgian Public Broadcasting; and three private broadcasters, Rustavi-2, Mze and Achara TV. The opposition has routinely denounced broadcasters Rustavi-2 and Mze for a pro-government bias in their news coverage.

[…]

At a December 29 rally in Tbilisi staged by the nine-party coalition backing Levan Gachechiladze, some participants, quizzing a reporter about Washington’s view of the election, pushed for international observers to stop the polls. “The exit polls are a trick being used by the government. That’s it. Everyone here knows the danger,” argued one Gachechiladze supporter, wearing the white neck scarf associated with the campaign.

In response to such criticism, the government has claimed that opposition leaders are not willing to cooperate to hold a fair election, but instead are focusing on stirring up trouble after the election. “Rather than preparing for the election, the opposition is getting ready for January 6… this is deeply troubling,” Acting President Nino Burjandaze said on December 26 in televised remarks.

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With 2008 less than a day away at time of writing, it seems only appropriate to take a look back at the blogging highlights in the Caucasus for 2007. Certainly, although blogging is still largely underdeveloped, the year has seen some major highlights, especially with regards to stories that also made headlines worldwide. In the past this has not been the case, but the signs for Armenian and Georgian blogging look very promising indeed, and not least because the first two months of 2008 will see crucial presidential elections take place in both republics.

Although the same might be true for Azerbaijan as its presidential election scheduled for late next year looms closer, the elections seem to have encouraged citizens, activists and journalists to blog. Other high profile events also seem to have pushed more bloggers to engage in online discussion on key issues, especially in the arguably more evolved Armenian blogging scene. Interestingly, however, the first major blogging event of the year came on 19 January 2007 when journalist and editor, Hrant Dink, was murdered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Although Dink was a Turkish citizen and resident in Armenia’s neighbor to the West, he was also an ethnic Armenian and prolific in his calls for reconciliation between Armenians and Turks. His views might have alienated himself from the larger Armenian Diaspora who consider that Genocide Recognition is the most important issue facing Armenians today, but the point was that his assassination shocked the world, including many Turks in Turkey itself as well as those with no links to Armenian circles at all.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

YouTube has a video of Shakira performing Whenever, Wherever in Tbilisi, Georgia, two days ago. Didn’t even realize Shakira was performing there, but anyway. Reuters, however, posted a story about the pop star’s performance days earlier, but I didn’t realize until today. A pity as I would have considered venturing up there.

For most European capitals a Shakira concert is nothing special, but for tiny ex-Soviet Georgia the arrival of the hip-swiveling pop star may be a sign their economy is crawling back from the dead.

The Grammy award-winning singer from Colombia, known for her hit-single “Hips Don’t Lie,” is the biggest pop performer to play in Georgia, and local media report that her fee for Sunday’s show is between $1 and $3 million.

Shakira is coming to Tbilisi by invitation of a company building the city’s Park Hyatt hotel, part of a wave of foreign investment pouring into Georgia since reformist President Mikhail Saakashvili was elected in 2004.

“We have never dealt with such a big show before,” concert promoter Mikhail Giorgadze told Reuters. “None of the other entertainment projects that we have done before can even come close to this commercial scale,” he said.

Fans of Shakira will listen to her for free at an open square in the centre of Tbilisi on Sunday.

Tbilisi has hosted past concerts by the late Ray Charles and English pop band Simply Red, as well as artists from the Russian entertainment world, but never by a performer with Shakira’s mainstream commercial appeal.

Georgia’s economy imploded after the end of the Soviet Union as the country was pitched into civil war, separatist fighting and political chaos.

But foreign direct investment has been rising fast under Saakashvili and is forecast to reach $2 billion this year. Two years ago it was $700-$800 million. International hotel chains are among the investors attracted to Tbilisi.

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One refreshing addition to the Georgian blogosphere as the January election approaches is Georgia Ink, the blog of cartoonist Vladimir Shioshvili. With elections in the South Caucasus generally tense, Shioshvili injects some humor into proceedings by asking, for example, why was the State of Emergency lifted at 7pm?

Anyway, here’s hoping we get something similar here in Armenia in time for the February presidential election. Until then, Georgia Ink is at http://blog.shioshvili.com.

Railway Station, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Sure to concern many already alarmed at the near monopolization of strategic areas of the economy by Russian companies, RFE/RL reports that the next asset to go will be the railways. However, as the news item says, the railway system has really suffered since independence and is usually a last resort not only for internal travel, but also for visiting neighboring countries.

Specifically this means Georgia as the railway obviously doesn’t run through Nakhichevan or to Azerbaijan proper as well as Turkey. Armenia is also not involved in a regional railway project involving Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan because of closed borders with the former and the unresolved conflict over Nagorno Karabakh with the latter.

The director general of Armenia’s rail network on Tuesday effectively confirmed its impending takeover by Russia’s state-run railway, a deal which will place yet another chunk of the Armenian economic infrastructure under Russian control.

The Armenian government called last year an international tender for the exclusive right to manage the struggling network for at least 30 years. Only the Russian railway and an Indian firm showed interest in the bidding, sending relevant proposals to Yerevan earlier this year.

The Indians pulled out of the tender last month, all but predetermining its outcome. Armenian media had for months claimed that the contest is a mere formality as the state-owned Armenian Railway’s handover to the Russians was decided by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Robert Kocharian in Moscow last January.

[…]

The impending deal is certain to be criticized by those government critics who believe that Russia’s growing economic presence in Armenia is turning into a stranglehold. Russian firms already dominate the Armenian energy and telecommunication sectors and are keen to acquire other industries. One of them is understood to have effectively purchased recently Armenia’s largest gold mining company from an Indian operator that fell foul of the authorities in Yerevan in January.

But according to Khrimian, more important is the fact that the new railway manager will have to invest at least $170 million in the Soviet-era network that has been operating at a fraction of its capacity ever since Armenia’s rail communication with the outside world was disrupted in 1992.

“Working in these blockade conditions, we have been unable to generate sufficient revenues to make capital investments in our train fleet and other infrastructure,” said Khrimian. “The investments will considerably improve the condition of our railway,” he added.

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After visiting Georgia’s second largest city of Kutaisi at the beginning of the year for the Newport Kutaisi Association and EveryChild, the U.S. branch of the Salvation Army yesterday contacted me regarding using one of my images for the front cover of a brochure they’ll be producing. They specifically requested the use of one image included in the audio slide show presentation I produced for the Newport Kutaisi Association and EveryChild.

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According to local news sources, exit polls will be finally introduced into Armenia for February’s presidential election. Actually, such rumors denied by USAID when approached on the matter in the past few months have finally been confirmed. Yesterday, U.S. Charge d’Affaires Joseph Pennington met with the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, to discuss the matter. Referring to a report from Panorama.am, Unzipped welcomes the news.

For the first time, exit poll will be conducted during presidential elections in Armenia. This offer was made by current US envoy in Armenia during his meeting today with Prime Minister and presidential hopeful Serj Sargsyan. Armenian Prime Minister accepted the offer, adding that even if US did not offer it, they would have sought assistance of specialised agencies to conduct exit poll. This is certainly positive development. If the results of exit poll, which are usually announced immediately after polling stations closed, would be similar to official results published by Central Electorate Commission, this would add to legitimacy of conducted elections.

Interestingly, Social Science in the Caucasus also discusses the issue of exit polls in neighboring Georgia and it’s worth pointing out that while such developments are to be welcomed, nothing can compare to conducting proper elections in the first place.

Following on from news that the former French Ambassador to Georgia and Saakashvili’s ex-Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili would consider running for president in January’s presidential election, EurasiaNet reports that Levan Gachechiladze will take on that role instead. However, it is reported that Zourabichvili will instead work with Gachechiladze and is tipped to be prime minister if the opposition coalition wins.

To international audiences, French-born Zourabichvili is by far the better known. The 43-year-old Gachechiladze, by profession a businessman, was a leader of the opposition protests and also a participant in the hunger strikes outside parliament that ended with the November 7 police clean-up operation. He is the brother of Georgian pop star Utsnobi (The Stranger).

How long Gachechiladze, if elected, would remain in power, however, is debatable. The two describe themselves as a team that intends to oversee Georgia’s transition from a presidential form of government to a parliamentary republic. Gachechiladze told reporters at a November 12 press conference that as soon as the necessary reforms are in place for a “parliamentary system,” he would resign as president.

Zourabichvili echoed that statement, describing the duo as a “temporary team” working together to win the elections, and then stay in power “during a transitional period” until parliamentary elections can be held. There is no decision as yet, she added, whether the ten-party opposition coalition will stay united for the vote. One party from the original alliance, the Labor Party, has already announced intentions to name its own candidate.

“Our chances of winning are good because we have the whole country behind us,” Zourabichvili asserted, adding that Gachechiladze has a “very high rating” with the Georgian public.

[…]

Public attention is now focusing on the upcoming presidential race. At least five potential candidates, including New Rights Party leader Davit Gamkrelidze and Government of the Future Party founder Gia Maisashvili, have so far expressed interest in the race. Leading the nominations are two opposition leaders currently wanted for questioning by the Georgian government: media-tycoon-turned-opposition-financier Badri Patarkatsishvili and Shalva Natelashvili, the leader of the Labor Party.