Armenia: Post-Election Double Whammy?
Although I had mentioned this in the comments section of an entry on the Armenia Election Monitor at the beginning of December, a meeting with EurasiaNet’s Central Asia and Caucasus Editor last night reminded me of it once again. She asked me for my opinion on the election so far and I said pretty much I’ve been writing, but added that for now, I don’t see that Levon Ter Petrosian — or any of the other candidates for that matter — stand a chance of winning against Serzh Sarkisian.
Factor in Ter Petrosian’s low popularity rating in Armenia — seemingly below 10 percent whatever sympathetic journalists might have you believe — and the fact that street protests have always been the tactic of choice for the radical opposition, and there’s not really much chance for any “colored revolution” to occur let alone succeed. There’s also one other factor that makes the question of street protests all the more difficult after the presidential election on 19 February 2008.
That is, as Karabakh Open reported, it will be the 20th Anniversary of the Karabakh Movement the following day and there are plans to stage a number of events to celebrate the fact. It is unclear from the article whether the celebrations will be held in Armenia, Karabakh or both.
However, as the 20th Anniversary of the Sumgait pogroms occurs nine days later, it looks as though events will stretch through the entire week following the election. One has to wonder how possible it is for the opposition — radical or not — to stage effective protests when other Armenians will be celebrating and mourning two of the most significant dates for an independent post-Soviet Armenia immediately after the presidential vote.
20TH ANNIVERSARY OF MOVEMENT WILL BE MARKED THE DAY AFTER THE ARMENIAN ELECTION
KarabakhOpen
03-12-2007 10:33:23The government set up a state committee to prepare the celebration of the 20th anniversary of the Karabakh movement. The starting day is February 20 when in 1988 the Soviet of People’s Deputies of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region and Shahumyan extended a request to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR for the unification with Armenia.
By the way, the Armenian presidential election will be held on February 19, and the outcome may influence the celebration. Especially that most controversies among the candidates of the Karabakh issue. What will the stance of the new Armenian government on the settlement of the Karabakh issue be?
Will the stance of the Armenian government on the Karabakh issue change 20 years after the movement? What new can the Armenian government offer Karabakh in the current situation? The options are quite few.








