Two days after Saturday’s presidential election in Georgia, Asking Tough Questions in Tough Places takes a fresh look at the outcome. With a pre-election and an exit poll pretty much tallying with parallel vote tabulation held during the vote, Christine Quirk concludes that the opposition should realize it’s game over. Probably it should now concentrate on contesting the parliamentary election which will be here soon enough.

Instead of wasting their supporters’ energy and anger by making them stand outside in the freezing cold for no good reason, the opposition parties (such as they are) should focus their resources on organizing around Misha’s shortcomings as a leader and creating a viable alternative. They need to be thinking about the next election now (or, rather, yesterday). Continued carping about this one diminishes their own credibility both with the Georgian electorate and the international community.

Additionally, in advance of the parliamentary elections, they should talk to the Ukrainians about creating a partisan election monitoring program (starting NOW). They need to have a legal, PR and grassroots strategy in place that documents, challenges, quantifies and systematically publicizes election violations. Even the Azadaliq coalition in Azerbaijan managed to get part of a program in place in 2005 (a lot of good it did them, but like the Georgians, before they met with the Ukrainians their idea of challenging the election was running everyone out in the streets to get their heads beaten in by the authorities).

(more…)

Even though international election monitors from the OSCE/ODIHR concluded that yesterday’s presidential election vote was “broadly democratic” and “the first genuinely competitive presidential election in the country, enabling the Georgian people to express their political choice,” TOL Georgia has since read the much longer preliminary report.

Compared to the earlier statement read out at today’s press conference, the “significant challenges which need to be addressed” are actually quite alarming.

“The distribution of vouchers for such things as utilities and medical supplies to vulnerable groups was criticized as an alleged misuse of budgetary funds in support of Mr. Saakashvili.”

“The vouchers prominently displayed that they were a subsidy from the President. Healthcare vouchers, as well as employment scheme leaflets, featured visually outstanding number “5”s – the number on the ballot under which the UNM has run in elections since 2004. Distributors of vouchers sometimes asked recipients whether they would vote for Mr. Saakashvili, and asked them to sign documents confirming their support. Vouchers were in some cases distributed from UNM offices.”

[…]

“The campaign was overshadowed by widespread allegations of intimidation and pressure, among others on public-sector employees. These included a number of confirmed cases of pressure on opposition supporters by the police and local officials to desist from campaigning, threats of arbitrary arrest or job dismissal and cases of landlords who were pressurized not to let premises for use as opposition campaign offices. Isolated instances of violence against opposition activists, including kidnapping, were reported and verified.

“A debate between the four main contestants did not take place as Mr. Saakashvili chose not to take part and his three main rivals conditioned their participation upon the opportunity to debate with him.”

[..]

“In addition, observers found CEC-produced stickers with the text “Where will you be on 5 January?”, with the “5” in a red circle visually resembling that used on Mr. Saakashvili’s campaign materials.”

(more…)

Although the international media is now reporting a victory for the incumbent, Mikhail Saakashvili, in yesterday’s presidential election in Georgia, there has so far been very little reaction to the news in the blogosphere. This contrasts strikingly with how bloggers worldwide reacted to the clashes between opposition supporters and riot police in downtown Tbilisi on 7 November.

Even though it was precisely those clashes which led to a state of emergency being declared, as well as an early presidential election, perhaps that’s not surprising. Tear gas, rubber bullets and outrage from international human rights groups is probably more newsworthy than something as increasingly predictable in the former Soviet space as elections.

Nevertheless, there were some active bloggers posting updates on the election although its certain that they will not be pleased. Today at 3pm local time, international observers effectively gave yesterday’s vote a clean bill of health despite TOL Georgia reporting numerous cases of intimidation and bribery, problems with voters lists and media bias.

Now, a few hours after international observers described the vote as “broadly democratic… enabling the Georgian people to express their political choice,” TOL Georgia gives its own verdict on the outcome of the election.

It is rather hard for me to believe that Saakashvili won the elections in the first round. The exit polls aired at 10 pm yesterday, which claimed Saakashvili’s victory with over 50%, prompted [premature] celebration and a pop concert among Saakashvili’s supporters. it should be noted that the organizations and medias that conducted these polls are affiliated with the authorities.

[…]

[…] The foreign observers so far say they didn’t encounter extraordinary violations which would change the end results. The votes are being counted — 10% so far. The opposition claims victory and mass violations.

[…]

The election monitors “hailed the elections, but noted some shortcomings” - usual mumbo jumbo. It would take breaking into the polling station, violence and changing the ballot boxes when the monitors were inside for them to note something. To be fair, they must listen to what the opposition says. The final reaction is yet to be publicized.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

In a matter of a few hours at time of writing, Georgians will go to the polls to vote in a presidential election called prematurely after a state of emergency followed opposition protests in Tbilisi at the beginning of November. After Mikhail Saakashvili came to power when street protests forced his predecessor, Eduard Shevardnadze, to resign during the so-called “Rose Revolution,” things have improved significantly in Georgia.

However, many Georgians are quite openly critical of Saakashvili. While still believing in the premise of the 2003 revolution and still convinced of the need for reform, many consider him mentally unstable and even question the official account of the circumstances surrounding prime minister Zurab Zhvania’s untimely death in 2005. Even so, despite some setbacks, Georgia was considered a beacon of relative democracy in the South Caucasus.

Until November 2007, that is. When riot police used excessive force, tear gas and rubber bullets to disperse an opposition rally in downtown Tbilisi, concerns about democracy in Georgia came to the fore. Today, the former Soviet republic’s democratic credentials will again be put to the test. However, the BBC reports that the opposition are already crying foul.

The main opposition candidate in Georgia’s snap presidential election has accused the authorities of preparing to rig Saturday’s vote.

“What is currently happening in Georgia is not a free election,” Levan Gachechiladze said in a statement broadcast on Georgian television.

[…]

Mr Gachechiladze complained that “we cannot use media outlets or promotional means”.

He added that a “smear campaign” was being staged against the opposition in the media.

(more…)

With 2008 less than a day away at time of writing, it seems only appropriate to take a look back at the blogging highlights in the Caucasus for 2007. Certainly, although blogging is still largely underdeveloped, the year has seen some major highlights, especially with regards to stories that also made headlines worldwide. In the past this has not been the case, but the signs for Armenian and Georgian blogging look very promising indeed, and not least because the first two months of 2008 will see crucial presidential elections take place in both republics.

Although the same might be true for Azerbaijan as its presidential election scheduled for late next year looms closer, the elections seem to have encouraged citizens, activists and journalists to blog. Other high profile events also seem to have pushed more bloggers to engage in online discussion on key issues, especially in the arguably more evolved Armenian blogging scene. Interestingly, however, the first major blogging event of the year came on 19 January 2007 when journalist and editor, Hrant Dink, was murdered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Although Dink was a Turkish citizen and resident in Armenia’s neighbor to the West, he was also an ethnic Armenian and prolific in his calls for reconciliation between Armenians and Turks. His views might have alienated himself from the larger Armenian Diaspora who consider that Genocide Recognition is the most important issue facing Armenians today, but the point was that his assassination shocked the world, including many Turks in Turkey itself as well as those with no links to Armenian circles at all.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

One refreshing addition to the Georgian blogosphere as the January election approaches is Georgia Ink, the blog of cartoonist Vladimir Shioshvili. With elections in the South Caucasus generally tense, Shioshvili injects some humor into proceedings by asking, for example, why was the State of Emergency lifted at 7pm?

Anyway, here’s hoping we get something similar here in Armenia in time for the February presidential election. Until then, Georgia Ink is at http://blog.shioshvili.com.

Jibs at TOL Georgia sent me a link to an article in the Georgian Times earlier on today that looked at the coverage various Internet sites such as Flickr and YouTube as well as blogs gave to last week’s clashes in Tbilis, the Georgian capital. Along with Resistance Georgia and TOL Georgia’s excellent coverage, my post for Global Voices is also mentioned.

TOL Georgia (http://blogs.tol.org) carries an article by ‘jibs’ headlined “Georgia: Democracy in Crisis.” This is one of a number of articles under the heading ‘Saakashvili’ that have been building up during the week. One of these directly quotes the GEORGIAN TIMES. Another blogging website is Global Voices (www.globalvoicesonline.org). This is a “non-profit global citizens’ media project founded at Harvard Law School’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society, a research think-tank focused on the Internet’s impact on society.” A post from Wednesday by Onnik Krikorian is entitled: “Georgia – End of a Fairy Tale?” This is a summary of blogs from various sources. One of the most interesting is from an Armenian blogger on Unzipped: “Just listened to President Saakashvili’s speech on the latest developments in Georgia, involving the forceful dispersal of the opposition demonstration. He put the blame on Russia again. I think Russians need to pack on and leave somewhere towards South America, so that they are not blamed for Georgia’s internal affairs. How can all this be blamed on Russia? Are those 70,000 people that showed up in the first day of the protests ALL Russian puppets? Long live our saviour and protector against the Russian dark magic!” The Global Voices blog however also directs readers to pro-Saakashvili comments on other blogs, such as “There are huge possibilities for good in this country and I hope that the President, Saakashvili, is smart enough to be able to quell this thing without having to resort to Soviet era tactics of repression. I will be an unequivocal supporter of him if he can figure out a way to address the core of what the protestors are saying.”

Internet contributions are not usually moderated and therefore have much more scope to be opinionated. But perhaps the most remarkable of the internet comments come from a source designed to be entirely neutral. The online encyclopedia Wikipedia already has an entry on the “2007 Georgian Demonstrations”. It does warn readers that this is a current event and that the content of the article may change as it unfolds. But it gives a full account of events so far and now purports to be a finished article. It includes a timeline of the events leading up to the demonstrations and some international reaction. Encyclopedia articles about historic events are usually not written or published until well after the event, when hindsight has lent a different layer of meaning to what happened. An encyclopedia article written about something while it is taking place will be a valuable addition to the yet-to-be-written history of this period.

Internet activity gives people who have no other outlet the chance to express their views to the world. Every view under the sun is therefore likely to appear. The tone of the internet activity visible so far is resolutely opposed to the government’s actions against demonstrators, and its arguments are based primarily on this occurrence rather the wider range of concerns expressed by government and opposition and in print media.

It’s worth pointing out that the quote The Georgian Times attributes to Unzipped is actually by Jibs at TOL Georgia, but I’d like to say that Artmika has done a wonderful job of covering events as they occur in Tbilisi. The same is true for Jibs at TOL Georgia. The full article is here.

Via TOL Georgia and Unzipped, the former President of the Georgian Young Lawyers Association, Anna Dolidze, has set up a blog dedicated to “non-violent resistance to Saakashvili’s dictatorial regime in Georgia.”

I am a human rights lawyer from Tbilisi, Georgia. I currently live in New York and work as Albert Podell Global Fellow at Risk at the New York University School of Law. Previously, I was a President of the Georgian Young Lawyers Association.

http://resistancegeorgia.blogspot.com/

Following on from Wednesday’s clashes in Tbilisi, Registan concludes that the decision to call a presidential election on 5 January 2008 is a smart move by the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili. A referendum to determine whether the parliamentary election should be held in the spring — one of the opposition demands — will also be held at the same time.

My snap take though is that this is tentatively good news for Georgia and the US. This hopefully will put Georgia back on more or less the right track. Rumors on the street were that the crackdown could only have come with US backing, and hopefully this will help repair some of the public relations damage.

[…]

[…] Georgia’s opposition is badly fractured; pretty much the only thing they could agree to was protesting Saakashvili’s regime. So this might, as commenters James and JB suggest, be a clever ploy to legitimately stay in power, however unpopular he may be.

[…]

[…] The Economist notes a curious synergy: “IT WAS exactly four years ago that Mikheil Saakashvili, then a youthful firebrand leader of the opposition to President Eduard Shevardnadze, brought his supporters out into the streets of Tbilisi.” Interesting.

(more…)

Ahead of today’s planned opposition rally in Tbilisi, TOL Georgia reports that former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili has left the country. Okruashvili as arrested last month after he accused the Georgian president of corruption and conspiring to have political opponents killed. His supporters claim that his release came only after he retracted the accusations under duress. TOL Georgia wonders if his departure to receive medical treatment abroad isn’t linked to such claims.

The opposition united under their failed leader are demonstrating against the Georgian authorities today. They claim that Okruashvili planned to show up at the rally and explain what really happened. To avoid such a scenario (imagine the emotional crowd) it was confirmed that Okruashvili left for the West for medical reasons. […]

[…]

– Okruashvili indeed seemed inadequate after his short spell at the prison. His lawyer too claimed that her client’s reasoning was impaired. Can the authorities explain why he was sent to be treated? Anything happened in the prison by any chance?

– If Okruashvili was indeed to show up at the demonstration today, how would this change Okruashvili’s situation? He would be arrested again, and those methods that were used against him during the first instance would be employed again. Unless of course, the drug is wearing off.

(more…)

My first entry as Caucasus Editor for Global Voices Online has now been posted and there are no prizes for guessing what it’s about. Even if the title of this post gives the game away, it wouldn’t take a rocket scientist to work out. Indeed, House Resolution 106 recognizing the Armenian Genocide is the main topic related to Armenia being covered not only in the blogosphere, but also by the world media.

It’s not often that Armenia makes international headlines across the globe, but when it does it’s usually because of one issue that remains fiercely debated until this day — the massacre and deportation of as many as 1.5 million Armenians from Ottoman Turkey in 1915-17. 22 countries recognize the events that occurred towards the end of World War I as genocide, a charge that the modern-day Republic of Turkey refuses to accept even though the term was devised by Raphael Lemkin in 1943 with the Armenian and Jewish experience in mind.

(more…)