Ahead of next month’s Global Voices Online Summit in Budapest, Hungary, I’ve just compiled a backgrounder on the role blogs played during the recent presidential election and especially in its immediate aftermath. Armenia will be specifically included in a session, The Wired Electorate in Emerging Democracies.

Arguably the most active country in the South Caucasus when it comes to blogging, the content and relevance of blogs on Armenia was at first nothing really worth writing home about. Most posts by foreigners living in the capital almost entirely focused on how good their lives were while others were simply copy and paste exercises reproducing articles without comment. Perhaps the only time when bloggers started to write original posts was whenever the Armenian Genocide came into the focus of the international media.

Even so, the situation slowly started to change in the run-up to last year’s parliamentary election as the political climate intensified in preparation for the inevitable transfer of power which occurred during this year’s presidential election. Under the constitution, the president is prohibited from holding office for two consecutive terms and as the then incumbent head of state was coming to the end of his second, Armenia would elect a new leader.

Of course, this being the former Soviet Union where vote-rigging and vote-buying are as much part of the election process as physically casting a vote, it was make or break time for the radical extra-parliamentary opposition in the country. And with the broadcast media controlled by the government, it was only natural that the Internet would be seen as a natural medium to disseminate alternative information.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

The BBC reports that thousands of Georgians have once again protested against the outcome of last weekend’s presidential election called early after a state of emergency declared in November was lifted. The precise number of those attending the rally is so far unknown.

Thousands of opposition supporters have taken to the streets in Georgia in protest at what they say were rigged presidential elections last weekend.

Those gathered in the capital, Tbilisi, are demanding a second round of voting.

Pro-Western leader Mikhail Saakashvili polled 53%, narrowly averting a run-off against his nearest rival, Levan Gachechiladze, who won 25% of the vote.

[…]

But most of the opposition’s complaints about alleged violations have been rejected by the Georgian election commission and the courts.

The BBC’s Neil Arun, who was at the rally, said much of the protesters’ anger was directed at Western observers who have said the polls were essentially democratic, although there were significant problems.

The authorities have warned the demonstrators they will not tolerate any more civil unrest.

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In two days Georgia will go to the polls to elect its president after street protests in downtown Tbilisi turned violent and a State of Emergency was declared. For many, the use of tear gas and riot police to disperse an opposition protest was way too heavy handed, but according to the Georgian constitution, after the State of Emergency was lifted, new elections had to be held.

Article 46

[…]

2. In case of introduction of a state of emergency or martial law throughout the whole territory of the state, elections of the President of Georgia, the Parliament of Georgia or other representative bodies of Georgia shall be held upon the cancellation of the state. In case of introduction of a state of emergency in a certain part of the state the Parliament of Georgia shall adopt a decision on holding the elections throughout the other territories of the state. (acquired a new wording by the Constitutional Law of Georgia of.6 February 2004).

In retrospect, one has to wonder if that wasn’t the reason why Saakashvili reacted in such a fashion although he is also notorious for what can be at best be described as being a “hot head.” Regardless, whichever way you look at it, the 5 January 2008 presidential election is described by the Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR) as a “vote on the record of Mikheil Saakashvili.”

As Georgia heads for a presidential election on January 5, the incumbent Mikheil Saakashvili is the favourite, but there is no certainty that he will win an easy victory.

Opinion polls give radically different assessments of the chances of Saakashvili and his six rivals, of whom businessman Levan Gachechiladze, the candidate nominated by a coalition of nine opposition parties, stands the best chance of victory. Gachechiladze is standing more as an “anti-presidential candidate”, and has pledged to change the constitution to abolish the institution of presidency if he wins.

[…]

In January 2004, Saakashvili was elected with 98 per cent of the vote. This time there are predictions that he may fail to collect more than half the vote on January 5, and will be forced into a second round on January 19.

The Ukrainian think-tank Common European Cause, which is planning to conduct an exit poll, has predicted that Gachechiladze will collect 30 per cent of the vote and Saakashvili 16 per cent.

By contrast, the Georgian Business Consulting Group, BCG, which did a survey of voters on behalf of Saakashvili’s campaign headquarters, forecast that the incumbent would be re-elected with 61 per cent of the vote. The opposition has disputed the objectivity of the survey.

The election resembles as much a referendum on the presidency of Saakashvili as a contest between candidates.

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When I moved to Armenia in 1998 I have to admit that I wasn’t prepared for the high level of corruption to be found in almost every sphere from international organizations to the public sector. In fact, it didn’t take long to discover at all, but what struck me most was how politics and the economy were pretty much simply a battle between competing clans with the population ostracized from anything remotely resembling an albeit embryonic democratic system.

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LVB.net has an interesting post on the impact of blogging on society and politics based on a moderated working group on the same subject which was part of the European Bloggers (Un)Conference. Interestingly, E-Channel’s Gegham Vardanyan and TOL Georgia’s Irakli Jibladze were present at the event and some points are worth republishing here.

1. In the UK, an Ipsos Mori poll found that only 16% of people trust journalists. It’s not as much because of what they write, but also because what they don’t write. While public broadcasters depend from politics for funding, commercial media depend from advertizing and profits. Because of their individual perspective, bloggers are seen as more independent and honest. Still, bloggers can learn some things from professional journalists in fields like writing style, clarity and efficiency.

2. Does this mean that bloggers have to be objective? Not at all. The new age is an age of opinion, not of facts. In order to be credible, honesty is more important than neutrality or objectivity.

3. Political campaigns are already changing into a more participatory way as a result of web 2.0 and blogs. However, this effect is still superficial and its impact on political programs is still low. Especially in the US we see that web 2.0 are effective for fundraising. But blogging and web 2.0 are not just about politics, it’s about society. They are transforming society by giving a voice to individuals and groups. Ideas are now also flowing from the bottom to the top instead of exclusively top down.

4. In countries without free media, bloggers usually get in trouble only when they start to have a real impact. But for these bloggers it is difficult to get a real impact, as their blogs are not picked up by the mainstream media. Sometimes the impact can be indirect, through world opinion and foreign media. Check out globalvoicesonline.org for news about censorship and freedom of expression.

5. How can bloggers measure their impact? Counters and statistics only tell one part of the story. It’s not the quantity that counts, but the quality of your readership. A few opinion makers as readers can have a greater impact than thousands of other readers. Surveys can be useful to discover who is reading your blog.

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Yesterday a friend told me that I had too much politics on my blog even though not only is it election time in Armenia, but it’s also part of my work. Nevertheless, perhaps it’s time for a break if only for one post, and as music plays an important part in my life, what better a subject to cover and not least since in the past few months, the monotony of the type of music being produced in Armenia has really gotten to me.

With one or two exceptions, even the rock scene is mundane, predictable and lacking in any spirit. Music for the masses is just as bad, although many would argue that the same is true in the even more commercially-driven Western market. Still, what we do have in Europe and the U.S. is a more diverse selection and five decades of pop and rock music — some of which stands the test of time.

Of late, for example, I’ve rediscovered the Sex Pistols, England’s most notorious punk rock band of the 1970s. Arguably manufactured by music impresario Malcom McLaren, whatever people might think of the Sex Pistols, I remember that they turned the country upside down. Aged seven when they were formed, even now I can remember the shock and outrage that accompanied the very mention of their name in the British media.

Sex Pistols are an English punk rock band that formed in London in 1975. The band originally comprised vocalist Johnny Rotten, guitarist Steve Jones, drummer Paul Cook and bassist Glen Matlock (later replaced by Sid Vicious). Although their initial career lasted only three years and produced only four singles and one studio album, the Sex Pistols have been described by the BBC as “the definitive English punk rock band.” The Pistols are widely credited with initiating the punk movement in the United Kingdom and creating the first generation gap within rock and roll.

The Sex Pistols emerged as a response to what was perceived to be the “increasingly safe and bloated” progressive rock and manufactured pop music of the mid-1970s. The band created various controversies during their brief career which captivated Britain, but often eclipsed their music. Their shows and tours repeatedly faced difficulties from authorities, and public appearances often ended in disaster and riot. Their 1977 single, “God Save the Queen”, was widely regarded as an attack on the British monarchy and British nationalism.

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As the radical opposition prepares for this Friday’s rally by former president Levon Ter Petrosian, during which he is said to be ready to respond to four outstanding criticisms of his regime in the 1990s, IntelliBriefs has posted an article explaining why many consider he has a lot to account for. The article also says that Ter Petrosian has limited support in society, something that opinion polls even from foreign organizations seem to indicate.

As in the parliamentary election when the radical opposition showed no sign of campaigning and instead braced itself for street protests which never materialized, the analysis concludes that coming to power through revolution and not democratic elections is the agenda of the Ter Petrosian team. Certainly, while there is support for Ter Petrosian among a sizable section of civil society, most of the population remains detached or supports other candidates.

A long awaited happening, the interest to which had been fanned for months, took place in Armenia. On October 26, 2007 former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, currently an actual leader of Armenian National Movement (ANM), the former ruling party made a 90-minute speech in Theatre Square in Yerevan. Despite quite a few logical discrepancies, pseudo-historic excursions, dubious allusions and populist declarations he declared his intention to run for presidency in February of 2008. Many people attended the meeting, but those who are still sincerely fond of the former president were evidently in the minority. There were many people who were there out of sheer curiosity and those who are always displeased with any acting authority.

On the eve of the meeting radical opposition from the pro-Western movement “Alternative” provoked clashes with police, which were immediately taken advantage of for the stirring up the situation, given that usually the authorities do not prevent their opposition from holding meetings, asking them to observe the law and order. Some Armenian media characterise the tactics used by the ex-president and his supporters as the willingness “to aggravate the internal situation, forcing the authorities to make another mistake at any cost.” Unsanctioned meetings, office capture raids and blocking the bodies of state, stirring up of domestic disorder and interference in the work of election commissions can be disguised as “spontaneous” people’s protest. […]

The tonality of many statements of “the soft intellectual” Ter-Petrosian proves that the new election campaign will be quite acute. Again, as in the late 1980s, when Ter-Petrosian was desperate about gaining power, the wedge of a slogan “Struggle, struggle till the end!” has been forced in. But the fact that the “mafia-type clan regime” is criticised by none other than the genuine architect of this regime, is amusing. Ter-Petrosian’s call for bringing order to the nation looks especially mocking, given that the destruction of Armenia’s economy and key elements of its infrastructure (except for, maybe, the young national army) during his stint was systemic and targeted.

[…]

The 1996 presidential elections were openly falsified to give the victory to Ter-Petrosian; opposition was suppressed never stopping of using tanks. In 1997, when the setoff between Ter-Petrosian on the one hand and other members of the political and military establishment on the other became evident, it was exactly the presidential side that resorted to a political combination aimed at the removal of the president’s opponents from the bodies of power. Attempts to provoke a political crisis by way of a series of acts of terror leading the way to a dismissal of prime-minister (Robert Kocharian) or the Minister of Interior and Security (Serge Sarkisian)met with the hard public opposition of Defence Minister Vazgen Sarkisian.

And in 1999, shortly before his tragic death, speaking at parliament prime-minister Vazgen Sarkisian said to the nation that the energy crisis was not a result of the Karabakh war. To quote the documents of the interim parliamentary committee that investigated abuse of power at the time: “2058 railway cars with 115,000 tonnes of fuel oil shipped to the Razdan and Yerevan power stations in 1992 were not registered, as well as 1184 tank-cars at the Razdan power station (66,000 tonnes) and 874 tank-cars at the Yerevan power station (49,000 tonnes)…

[…]

Ter-Petrosian’s chances of winning the election are as good as nil. According to serious observers, in reality he can only count on the support of not more than a fraction of several percents of the electorate. His only hope is provoking meetings in the streets, pumping up destructive emotions, provoking dissent in the armed forces and law enforcement agencies and what is more dangerous, fanning parochial sentiment (for example, using the scenario of Aiastan – Karabakh setoff), the distinguishing feature of Ter-Petrosian’s “leadership” (especially in the last period of his presidency). Such event would inevitably throw the country back to late 1980s, the period of general upheaval, revolution-like street meetings that pushed him up to the top of presidential power in 1991. Such upheavals spell no good whatever.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

Via Unzipped, Armenia Now reports that a 59-year-old cleaning woman has been killed by a bear kept by the head of Armenia’s Military Police. According to the report, it is also believed that the Military Police headquarters in Yerevan is home to a tiger raising serious concerns as to the rule of law and abuse of position in Armenia.

The family refuses to give the alleged victim’s surname; they only say that a woman named Jasmine, 59, who was a cleaning lady at the department, was killed on Thursday. The sources say the bear escaped its cage while attendants entered to feed it. It is said that the woman was taken to hospital where she died of wounds. The family says it was called to identify the body and saw that she had suffered an attack.

[…]

The family refuses to give further information. The Military Police refused to answer ArmeniaNow’s question concerning the alleged event.

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After Myrthe reported that she was picking up up more accesses to her site from people searching on Google for Gagik Tsarukian (aka Dodi Gago) and his daughter, The Armenian Observer also reported the same, as did I. However, it was Observer who appeared to discover why exactly after Myrthe concluded it must have something to do with the recent marriage of Tsarukian’s daughter.

Observer even managed to find a video on YouTube showing the celebrations which more significantly gave us a rare and unique look into the controversial house that is home to perhaps Armenia’s richest and most powerful oligarch. Kronstadt on The Armenian Libertarian-Socialist Movement offers his opinion on Tsarukian’s estate in a country that can still be considered poor by international standards.

When I first watched this video, the first instinct was Anger – pure anger! But then one needs to sober up and look at all this in calm analytical and historical perspectives. This is not Oligarchy!!! “Oligarkhia” is a stupid apologetic term applied by the social scientists to some post-Soviet republics, with a connotation of “a peculiar case of capitalist development that went *slightly* off track” … as if Capitalism is designed to deliver general prosperity and long-term balance for all, but in some rare cases small anomalies such as oligarkia are possible. Bullfuckingshit. This is Capitalism, and that’s all there is to it. And oligarchy is the integral and inseparable part in its development.

[…]

As I watched this video the second time, I couldn’t help but recall the videos from pre-Castro Cuba… it was all the same. Cuba was a satellite puppy of America with very small white minority owning everything there was to own and indulging themselves in endless endeavours of bourgeois decadence, while the vast majority of population was living in shanty-towns and townships with no education, healthcare, regular food - toiling in sugar cane plantations and tobacco fields. And sooner or later people did rebel - people rebelled and as we have seen in so many other places the Communist forces hijacked the revolution.

My instinct is to wait - wait until the conditions have matured to the point when people will see that it is not the Individual leader or the Will to do good that is the question, but the Structure of the economical system that cultivates these material and cultural conditions, and the social and political contradictions and paradoxes. Until people themselves realise it that capitalism is not the right path to democracy, free-entrepreneurship and participatory-politics, until that day revolutions will either be shipwrecked or replaced by dictatorships.

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Via Amerikan Turk, I stumbled upon an open letter to the Armenian Diaspora by Turkish writer, Mustafa Akyol. Of course, the subject of the letter is not hard to guess. It concerns the Armenian Genocide and is obviously written as a result of House Resolution 106. Before quoting from the letter which was also published by the Turkish Daily News, however, it’s interesting to read up on Akyol.

Mustafa Akyol is a Turkish Muslim writer, who argues both against Islamic extremism and extreme secularism and is an outspoken promoter of intelligent design.

Akyol was born in Ankara in 1972 and had his early education there. He later graduated from the Istanbul Nişantaşı Anadolu Lisesi and the International Relations Department of Bosphorus University. He earned his masters in the History Department of the same university.

[…]

In the past years he has given seminars in several universities in the U.S. and the UK on issues of faith, science, religious tolerance or inter-faith dialogue.

Mustafa Akyol’s articles on Islamic issues, in which he mostly argues against Islamic extremism and terrorism from a Muslim point of view and defends the Islamic faith, have appeared in publications like The Weekly Standard, The Washington Times, The American Enterprise, National Review, FrontPage Magazine and Islam Online. He lives in Istanbul and is currently working on a book titled An Islamic Case for Liberty, which he plans to have published in 2007.

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Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisyan, State University, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2007

Armenpress reports that a recent poll conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association reveals that had the 2008 Armenian presidential election been held this month, prime minister Serzh Sarkisian would attract 31.8 percent of the vote. Trailing his lead were opposition Heritage party leader Raffi Hovannisian with 12.3 percent, the pro-government oligarch and Prosperous Armenia party leader, Gagik Tsarukian, with 12 percent, and another opposition party leader, Orinats Yerkir’s Artur Baghdasarian, with 11.2 percent. This means that a second round would have to be held.

According to the survey which was conducted among 1,000 respondents throughout the country, the first president of the Republic of Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosian, would attract 3.8 percent of the vote. Interestingly, if the current president, Robert Kocharian, were able to run, he would attract only 2.9 percent. The poll also indicated that in terms of party support, the Republican party of the prime minister enjoys the most with 21 percent, and Prosperous Armenia is second with 16 percent.

Orinats Yerkir, Heritage and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnakstutyun are third, fourth and fifth, respectively. However, opinion polls in Armenia are hardly respected or treated seriously by anyone with critics arguing that the organizations conducting the polling are usually politicized. RFE/RL’s Press Review, for example, quotes a pro-government and a pro-opposition newspaper as casting doubts on such surveys.

“Hayots Ashkhar” complains that few in Armenia trust the credibility of the country’s leading pollsters accused by the opposition of collaborating with the government. “The widely held belief is that independent polling centers are non-existent here,” says the paper. Nonetheless, it says, as the presidential elections approach politicians are increasingly obsessed with popularity ratings issued by various centers.

“Hayk” shrugs off Armenian opinion polls as a “sociology of flattery.” “There is a lie, a terrible lie, and statistics,” says the opposition paper. “Opinion polls in Armenia have long been driven to the sphere of science fiction.” Pollsters, it says, routinely rig their data in order to get money from the authorities.

The full post is available on the 2008 Presidential Election Monitor Blog.