A1Plus reports that the main opposition candidate in Saturday’s presidential election, Levan Gachechiladze, has demanded the resignation of the Chairman of the Central Election Commission (CEC). Interestingly, the news item says that the Armenian president, Robert Kocharian, has already congratulated his Georgian counterpart, Mikhail Saakashvili.

The opposition in Georgia denies Michael Sahakashvili’s victory. They intruded into the office of the Central Electoral Commission headed by Levan Gachechiladze, the united candidate of opposition and demanded the resignation of the CEC chairman, accusing him of rigging. According to the CEC, Sahakashvili has gathered 52 percent of votes, while the opposition leader 41 percent of votes. Tonight the opposition will hold a joint press conference.

Robert Kocharyan has already congratulated Michael Sahakashvili with his victory. “I sincerely congratulate You with the victory in the presidential elections. I am convinced that You will continue stabilization, democratic and economic process development in Georgia”, says the congratulatory foreword.

Actually, so too has the U.S. Government, but anyway. Incidentally, there’s a photo depicting the incident at the CEC in Tbilisi on the front of EurasiaNet’s special Georgia election site. Great photo, Dean.

The BBC reports that it’s now official. The Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, has been re-elected with 52.8 percent of the vote. The main opposition candidate, Levan Gachechiladze, received 27 percent of the vote.

Earlier in the day, Mr Gachechiladze told thousands of supporters in the capital Tbilisi that results had been “falsified”.

In a snowbound square on Sunday, the Orthodox Christmas Eve, he told the crowd: “We will defend our vote by legal means.”

However, international observer missions applauded the conduct of the election.

US Congressman Alcee Hastings of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), said: “I perceive this election as a valid expression of the choice of the Georgian people.”

He said there had been some shortcomings - notably that Mr Saakashvili’s campaign had overlapped with state activities, and this “contributed to an inequitable campaign environment”.

[…]

The United States urged the opposition to respect the monitors’ verdict.

Russia, however, called that verdict “hasty” and “superficial”.

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With 2008 less than a day away at time of writing, it seems only appropriate to take a look back at the blogging highlights in the Caucasus for 2007. Certainly, although blogging is still largely underdeveloped, the year has seen some major highlights, especially with regards to stories that also made headlines worldwide. In the past this has not been the case, but the signs for Armenian and Georgian blogging look very promising indeed, and not least because the first two months of 2008 will see crucial presidential elections take place in both republics.

Although the same might be true for Azerbaijan as its presidential election scheduled for late next year looms closer, the elections seem to have encouraged citizens, activists and journalists to blog. Other high profile events also seem to have pushed more bloggers to engage in online discussion on key issues, especially in the arguably more evolved Armenian blogging scene. Interestingly, however, the first major blogging event of the year came on 19 January 2007 when journalist and editor, Hrant Dink, was murdered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Although Dink was a Turkish citizen and resident in Armenia’s neighbor to the West, he was also an ethnic Armenian and prolific in his calls for reconciliation between Armenians and Turks. His views might have alienated himself from the larger Armenian Diaspora who consider that Genocide Recognition is the most important issue facing Armenians today, but the point was that his assassination shocked the world, including many Turks in Turkey itself as well as those with no links to Armenian circles at all.

The full post is available on Global Voices Online.

It’s an issue that’s been raised on this blog a few times already, but now the U.S. Embassy has finally commented on attempts to discredit opinion polls conducted by a local organization for Gallup and the International Republican Institute (IRI). The polls which show the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, enjoying a commanding lead over his rivals for the 19 February presidential election have obviously been attacked by candidates shown to have less support in society.

That much is normal in any democratic country. However, those media outlets and organizations sympathetic to — or supportive of — the return of the first and former president, Levon Ter Petrosian, to power have also weighed into the argument. For example, this week a number of such stories have been published quoting other candidates such as Vahan Hovannisian, Vazgen Manukian and Artur Baghdasarian as saying they question the credibility of such polls.

Of course, they would question their credibility as that is politics, and this is an election. However, journalists did not apparently approach either Gallup, IRI, or the U.S. Embassy for their reaction to the allegations of political bias. Yesterday, it seems, the U.S. Embassy finally responded, and it is at least good to see that the issue of opinion polls has been raised, that a statement was issued, and also that media outlets critical of the surveys such as A1 Plus and RFE/RL carried the news.

The polls, financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and commissioned by the International Republican Institute, have been conducted on a regular basis since March 2006 with the aim of gauging public opinion on key issues facing Armenia. Respondents have also been asked by pollsters from the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA), overseen by the U.S. Gallup Organization, to rate the country’s main political leaders and parties.

Interest in the surveys has grown substantially in advance of the February 19 presidential election, with politicians and media commentators discussing ratings assigned to the main election candidates. Sarkisian has emerged as by far the most popular of the candidates, leading his allies to declare that his victory in the vote is a forgone conclusion.

[…]

In a statement, the U.S. embassy dismissed the mounting criticism whipped up by the pro-opposition press. “While the Embassy is encouraged that the study has focused the attention of Armenian society and political parties on the important electoral processes underway in the country, we are nevertheless concerned by the inaccurate portrayals of the study being reported in some national media,” it said.

[…]

“Neither the United States government, the International Republican Institute nor Baltic Surveys Ltd. / Gallup Organization endorses any particular party or candidate,” the statement stressed.

The embassy also reaffirmed the USAID’s plans to finance Armenia’s first-ever exit polls on election day. Prime Minister Sarkisian was reported to have approved those plans at a December 4 meeting with Joseph Pennington, the U.S. charge d’affaires. The embassy made it clear that the exit polls would be organized by Baltic Surveys/Gallup but did not specify if the ASA would again be contracted to do the crucial fieldwork.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008.

RFE/RL reports that presidential candidate Vahan Hovannisian has questioned the reliability of opinion polls held in the run up to the 19 February presidential election. Opinion polls have long been criticized by candidates in previous elections, and especially by those who are identified as trailing their competitors. What makes this criticism more newsworthy, however, is that RFE/RL appears to be casting doubt on the integrity of Gallup and the U.S. Embassy in Armenia.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian is not as popular as is claimed by pro-government pollsters, one of his election challengers representing the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) said on Monday.

Deputy parliament speaker Vahan Hovannisian also echoed former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s claim that the Armenian authorities artificially increased the number of presidential candidates to facilitate Sarkisian’s victory in the ballot scheduled for February 19.

Opinion polls conducted by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA) and other local researchers have consistently given Sarkisian a huge lead over other election contenders. Armenian state television cited on Sunday the results of the latest, U.S.-funded poll designed by the U.S. Gallup organization and conducted by the ASA.

It said Sarkisian would garner 29 percent of the vote if the election was held this week. Opposition leader Artur Baghdasarian would come in a distant second but far ahead of other candidates with 12 percent, according to the poll.

The full post is available on the Armenian Election Monitor 2008.

After visiting Georgia’s second largest city of Kutaisi at the beginning of the year for the Newport Kutaisi Association and EveryChild, the U.S. branch of the Salvation Army yesterday contacted me regarding using one of my images for the front cover of a brochure they’ll be producing. They specifically requested the use of one image included in the audio slide show presentation I produced for the Newport Kutaisi Association and EveryChild.

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According to local news sources, exit polls will be finally introduced into Armenia for February’s presidential election. Actually, such rumors denied by USAID when approached on the matter in the past few months have finally been confirmed. Yesterday, U.S. Charge d’Affaires Joseph Pennington met with the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, to discuss the matter. Referring to a report from Panorama.am, Unzipped welcomes the news.

For the first time, exit poll will be conducted during presidential elections in Armenia. This offer was made by current US envoy in Armenia during his meeting today with Prime Minister and presidential hopeful Serj Sargsyan. Armenian Prime Minister accepted the offer, adding that even if US did not offer it, they would have sought assistance of specialised agencies to conduct exit poll. This is certainly positive development. If the results of exit poll, which are usually announced immediately after polling stations closed, would be similar to official results published by Central Electorate Commission, this would add to legitimacy of conducted elections.

Interestingly, Social Science in the Caucasus also discusses the issue of exit polls in neighboring Georgia and it’s worth pointing out that while such developments are to be welcomed, nothing can compare to conducting proper elections in the first place.

Polling Station, Arabkir, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian/Oneworld Multimedia 2007

While Mediamax reports that the United States has offered Armenia technical assistance for next year’s election which some in diplomatic circles believe will be held on 17 February, other concerns are being raised ahead of the vote. In the recent parliamentary election, U.S. technical assistance included the provision of computers to the Central Election Commission (CEC) and training for CEC, TEC and PEC members through IFES.

Anyway, here’s how Mediamax reported news of the offer extended to the prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, on his visit to to the U.S. last week.

During a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan on Tuesday [23 October] in Washington, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice expressed on behalf of the US government readiness in case of necessity to assist the Armenian authorities in the solution of technical problems while organizing the presidential elections of 2008.

However, in related news, RFE/RL reports that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) whose ODIHR office monitors elections is already raising concerns about new restrictions on the size of such missions suggested by Russia, Belarus and four Central Asian states on their activity. As Armenia is reported to support the initiative, the news must ring some alarm bells among opposition and pro-democracy activists.

The full post is available on the Armenia Election Monitor 2008 Blog.

A friend has just forwarded me a warning from the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan sent out to all its citizens resident or working in the country. The advisory warns U.S. citizens to avoid the area around the Yerevan Opera because of traffic concerns and elements of “unpredictability and possible violence.”

Please be advised that today, Friday, October 26, 2007, a public rally is scheduled to take place at Opera Square/Freedom Square at approximately 1700 hours. It is estimated that approximately 7,000 to 8,000 demonstrators may attend. As in any large public gathering, there is an element of unpredictability and possible violence. It is expected that there will be severe traffic congestion and road closures.

The U.S. Embassy Yerevan strongly encourages that all U.S. citizens avoid the area. If for any reason you are in the area, please exercise extreme caution, avoid large groups, and be aware of your surroundings at all times.

The U.S. Embassy in Yerevan is located at 1 American Avenue, Yerevan 375082 Armenia. The Embassy telephone number is (+374-10) 46-47-00, fax: (+374 10) 46-47-42, web site: www.usa.am

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Reuters reports the expected. The Armenian Genocide Bill due to be put before the U.S. Congress next month has been suspended at the request of its co-sponsors. Well, they say “suspended,” but it’s unlikely that the situation with Iraq or Turkey is going to change anytime soon.

The sponsors conveyed their decision in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, after support for the controversial resolution support faltered in the face of vehement protests from NATO ally Turkey.

[…]

The sponsors asked Pelosi not to schedule a vote “at this time,” but said they would continue to work for “consideration sometime later this year, or in 2008.”

Right, but a word of advice. Don’t hold your breath.

It should come as no surprise to anyone that the big guns are still out against House Resolution 106 recognizing the Armenian Genocide which is or was scheduled to be put before the U.S. Congress for a full vote next month. As has been mentioned on this blog time and time again, such resolutions are not new and the outcome has to date always been the same.

That is, citing national security concerns and foreign policy objectives, whoever is in the White House — Democrat and Republican alike — kill such bills before they can reach the floor. Now is no exception, with AFP reporting that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is urging U.S. lawmakers to drop the bill because of a strategic relationship with the modern-day Republic of Turkey.

“This is a very delicate time with Turkey,” she told the House of Representatives Foreign Relations Committee, which voted two weeks ago to label the Ottoman Empire’s World War I massacre of Armenians as genocide.

“We have extremely important strategic interests with the Turks,” Rice said, appealing to the House as a whole not to vote on the controversial resolution.

“This was something that was a horrible event in the mass killings that took place, but at the time of the Ottoman Empire. These are not the Ottomans,” she said of the modern-day Turkish state.

Rice on Tuesday held talks with Armenian Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, and she told the House panel that she had urged both the Armenians and Turks to work together on bridging their historical differences. “But I continue to believe that the passage of the… Armenian genocide resolution would severely harm our relationships with Turkey,” the secretary of state said.

[…]

Some of the House members told Rice that the resolution was never intended to be a slight on Turkey itself. But in any case, support for the genocide tag appears to be waning in the full House following Turkey’s threat to cut off its logistical support for U.S.-led war efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan.