Azerbaijani Prisoner of War, Stepanakert, Republic of Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 1994

True, we’ve been here before with the media reporting that a solution to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh might finally be in sight, but the possibility for peace is once again resurfacing. However, such hopes have always been dashed at the last moment, but what makes the situation different this time round is the active involvement of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in convening a meeting between his Armenia and Azerbaijani counterparts tomorrow in Moscow. RFE/RL has more.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will meet his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts in Moscow on November 2 for potentially decisive talks on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it was officially announced on Wednesday.

[…]

Medvedev announced his initiative following upbeat statements on Karabakh peace prospects made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. In an October 7 interview with the “Rossiiskaya Gazeta” daily, Lavrov described as “very real” chances for the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. “There remain two or three unresolved issues which need to be agreed upon at the next meetings of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan,” he said.

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Ararat Zurabian Kentron Pre-Election Rally, Yerevan © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Yesterday saw an apparently unsanctioned pre-election rally ahead of tomorrow’s local election in Yerevan’s Kentron (Center) district. Some observers consider the vote an important test for democracy following a disputed presidential election earlier this year and a way to assess the level of support for the former president, Levon Ter-Petrossian. Demonstrations staged by his opposition movement since the 1 March clashes have become smaller and smaller leading some to consider that it has run out of momentum.

Interestingly, others have noticed some similar parallels with the February presidential election. The current district head, Gagik Beglarian (more notoriously known by his Chorni Gago nickname) faces competition from his predecessor and key figure in Ter-Petrossian’s team, Ararat Zurabian. However, what makes the vote different is a lack of interest shown by most residents in the center. Unfortunately, Armenians are more interested in presidential rather than local and even parliamentary elections.

The pro-opposition A1 Plus online news service says 70 percent of respondents were uninterested which makes the prospects of vote-buying and falsification all the more likely. RFE/RL already reports that both candidates are alleging the other will falsify the vote.

Ararat Zurabian, an opposition leader recently released from jail, is challenging the incumbent mayor of the city’s central Kentron district, Gagik Beglarian, in what promises to be a tense election scheduled for Sunday. Armenia’s main opposition alliance led by former President Levon Ter-Petrosian has declared Zurabian’s victory its most immediate political objective.

Beglarian, who is affiliated with the governing Republican Party (HHK), is seen as the favorite to win the vote not least because of his party’s administrative levers and financial resources. He claimed that the Armenian opposition and Zurabian in particular are intent on rigging the vote.

[…]

Zurabian laughed off the allegations, arguing that the opposition can barely influence the electoral process because all but one seats in election commissions in Kentron are controlled by HHK members and other government loyalists. He said that it is Beglarian who will rely on a “whole system of falsifications” on election day.

“Be certain that all kinds of vote falsifications that were observed during the presidential election and all other elections will be repeated in Kentron,” Zurabian told a news conference. “To talk about opposition falsifications means to prepare ground for falsifications and try to blame them on the opposition,” he said.

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Ferik, Armavir Region, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

As mentioned in a previous post, yesterday saw a return visit to Ferik, a small Yezidi-inhabited village in the Armavir region of Armenia. According to the locals, Ferik was a predominantly Azerbaijani village until they fled persecution in Turkey a year before the 1915 Armenian Genocide. The village was then named after Ferik Polatbekov, the son of a Kurdish chieftain deported to Siberia.

This young revolutionary poet, who became the main leader of the Red Army in Siberia and was finally killed by the Whites, remained totally unknown in Kurdistan. The same applies to a number of Kurdish writers and poets who achieved fame in the Soviet Union.

A People Without a Country, Gérard Chaliand, Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou, Marco Pallis

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Armenia-Turkey World Cup Qualifier, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Perhaps one of the most historical moments of recents years in Armenia has been and gone. Amid high security, Turkey beat Armenia 2-0 in a World Cup qualifying match in Yerevan attended by both the Armenian and Turkish presidents. Thankfully, the game passed without incident, although there was significant jeering from the crowd whenever Turkey had the ball. Regardless of the result, however, some seeds were sown to contribute towards improving ties between the two estranged neighbors. The Associated Press reports on the match.

Tuncay Sanli and Semih Senturk scored second-half goals Saturday to give Turkey a 2-0 win at Armenia in World Cup qualifying.

Tuncay gave the visitors the lead in the 61st minute, scoring from close range. Senturk made it 2-0 in the 79th, capitalizing on a defender’s mistake in the box.

Mehmet Aurelio had an early chance for Turkey but his powerful shot from 14 meters (yards) four minutes into the game was blocked by goalkeeper Roman Berezovsky.

Armenia replied with a chance in the 8th when Volkan Demirel saved Gamlet Mkhitarian’s drive from 25 meters.

Neither side dominated the game before halftime, but Turkey looked more organized.

The visitors came close midway through the first half when Emre Delozoglu shaved the crossbar from the edge of the box in the 27th minute. Three minutes later, Mevlut Erdins broke down the left flank only to hit the outer side of the net.

Euro 2008 semifinalist Turkey dominated after the interval.

Arda Turan headed down a cross from the left to set up a goal for Tuncay. Senturk stole the ball from Alexander Tatevosian in the box to extend the lead and was close to making it 3-0 in the 81st but failed to beat Berezovsky one-on-one.

The match was being played against the backdrop of decades of animosity rooted in the WWI-era atrocities that began in 1915. The two neighbors have no diplomatic ties. Turkey President Abdullah Gul attended the match, becoming the first Turkish leader to visit Armenia since the ex-Soviet nation declared independence in 1991.

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ARF-D activist burns Turkish flag during a Genocide memorial event, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian 2008

Ahead of tomorrow’s match between Armenia and Turkey, as well as the arrival of Turkish President Abdullah Gul, nationalist forces in both countries are voicing their opposition to what others hope could be a long awaited breakthrough in relations between Yerevan and Ankara. On Tuesday, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) used the occasion of the 17th Anniversary of the declaration of Nagorno Karabakh’s independence to declare its intention to stage protests while its counterpart in the U.S. issued a statement.

On the occasion of the Sept. 6 visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Armenia, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Western US Central Committee reaffirms the conviction of the organization and the entire Armenian-American community of the imperative for friendly and cooperative relations between Armenia and all of its bordering countries. At the same time, we assert the fact that Turkey still continues its 15-year blockade of Armenia, which has cost billions of dollars of damage to Armenia’s economy and prohibits its own citizens from freely traveling to Armenia. Furthermore, Turkey continues its domestic and international campaign of denying the Armenian Genocide. Turkey also continues to enforce its criminal codes against its own citizens who dare to accurately discuss the Armenian Genocide. Simply put, Turkey continues its efforts to elude justice.

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ARF-D Karabakh Indepence Anniversary, Matenadaran, Yerevan, Republic of Armenia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

Yesterday marked the 17th Anniversary of the declaration of independence for the self-declared Republic of Nagorno Karabakh. Situated within Azerbaijan, but inhabited mainly by ethnic Armenians, Nagorno Karabakh is just one of three frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus. Repeated efforts to find a solution to the conflict, which ended with a ceasefire agreement signed in May 1994 have failed. Although there didn’t appear to be any official celebrations to mark the anniversary, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation — Dashnaktsutyun (ARF-D) held an event at the Matenadaran. Despite the importance of Nagorno Karabakh for many Armenians, the number of people attending was quite small at not more than 5,000.

Despite being represented in the coalition government, speakers used the occasion to declare that the nationalist party would stage street protests if the Turkish president, Abdullah Gul, attends this weekend’s football match between Armenia and Turkey in Yerevan. As RFE/RL explains, the statement comes in stark contrast to the message of reconciliation that the president, Serge Sargsyan, has offered to his counterpart in Ankara. Vahan Hovannisian, a key figure in the party, also took the time to comment on the recent war between Armenia and Georgia. The party line is that ethnic Armenians living in Georgia’s Samtskhe-Javakheti region should be granted autonomy.

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Mikhail Saakashvili, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

The Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, has responded to recognition of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by his Russian counterpart, Dmitri Medvedev. Civil Georgia reports that Saakashvili has called the move a “strategic mistake,” the comments came in a televised address to the nation made yesterday.

“I want everyone to understand one thing: today’s Russian step is totally illegal, with no legal consequences either for Georgia or the rest of the world,” he said.

In his 20-minute address, Saakashvili focused on, as he put it, the importance of the international support that Georgia had gained following the crisis.

“Today, yesterday and in recent weeks, Russia made unimaginable strategic mistakes and struck an unimaginable blow to its place in the international community and in the history of the contemporary world,” he said. “Now Georgia has gained huge international support and solidarity from all over the world and support for our territorial integrity, and we would have failed to gain such huge support, even if we had tried for 200 years, if not for the mistakes made by Russia.”

“The end of the revival of Russia’s imperialism has started today in Georgia,” Saakashvili added.

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Russian Roadblock, Gori, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

With reports that much of Russia’s military presence in Georgia has been withdrawn, reflection on a serious conflict which threatened to ignite the entire South Caucasus is becoming more and more the order of the day. For whatever reasons, and whoever is to blame, the conflict between Russia and Georgia was the most serious for years. Despite Russian claims of thousands dead, hundreds died in South Ossetia and Georgia proper, and tens of thousands lost their homes in military action reminiscent of the ethnic cleansing which devastated the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

Without a doubt, fallout from the confict — especially as allegations of abusing a truce agreement continue to be levelled at Russia — will resonate for some time to come. The BBC reports, for example, that while Russian combat troops have pulled out of Georgia proper, other troops under the premise of peacekeeping will remain which potentially allow Moscow to maintain the effective division of the country between East and West thanks to control of parts of the highway around Gori.

Ostensibly a “buffer zone,” questions are now being asked as to what is the real reason for their presence, especially as Russia also intends to remain in the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti.

France brokered the ceasefire to end fighting over Georgia’s pro-Russian breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Its terms are vague about the extent of any buffer zones, analysts say.

A White House spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, said the checkpoints and buffer zones set up by Russia were not part of the ceasefire agreement.

A spokesman for the French foreign ministry, Eric Chevalier, said a United Nations Security Council resolution was needed to clarify exactly what the ceasefire agreement covers.

The Russian military say they intend to maintain a peacekeeping presence in Georgia, controlling buffer zones around both South Ossetia and the other breakaway province, Abkhazia.

The zones include sections of the main highway from the capital Tbilisi to the Black Sea as well as Georgia’s main airbase at Senaki.

[…]

BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says Western diplomats fear that Moscow is determined to define the parameters of the interim security arrangements on its own terms.

Part of the problem, he adds, is the extraordinary vagueness of the EU-brokered ceasefire deal, which speaks only of “additional security measures” in “the immediate proximity of South Ossetia” - proximity being defined as a distance of “several kilometres”.

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Gori, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

After the failed attempt to enter the Russian-occupied town of Gori in a convoy organized by the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Union on Saturday, another opportunity emerged two days later when Moscow indicated it would give the order for its troops to leave the town the same day. Nobody believed them, of course, but the international media pack in town had to be there just in case. Reuters had decided to leave for Gori at 7 in the morning while AFP would start out a little later at 9.30.

Given that we had to get into Gori, a town where 90 percent of the population had already fled following Russian cluster-bomb attacks and where Russian troops now patrolled the streets, we decided to leave at 8.30 am. The plan was to travel alongside the New York Times’ car which would otherwise try to sneak in if the Russians weren’t true to their word. Despite the risk of running into South Ossetian militia, the need to find alternate routes into Gori really was necessary.

Just under 50 miles from Tbilisi, the birthplace of the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin was now the most strategically important town in the country. Controlling it, especially after the bombing of a railway bridge on the outskirts of nearby Kaspi, the Russians had effectively cut off the main transport route connecting East and West. Most of its inhabitants had fled creating a considerable problem with IDPs and everyone was expecting the Russians to finally leave.

And for a while at least all indications where that this might happen. In the last part of the Georgian-controlled section of the Gori road, dozens of local police dressed smartly and brandishing semi-automatic weapons stood alongside the road with their vehicles parked a little way ahead. It seemed more like preparations for a publicity event than security, and after passing the first Russian military checkpoint at Igoeti, there even appeared to be less tanks dug-in alongside of the road.

Russian military petrol tankers were heading towards Tbilisi as well, as if to refuel any vehicles for the journey back to South Ossetia. Closer to Gori, dozens of cars and vans transporting the international media brigade to Gori stood in line at another Russian military checkpoint where soldiers checked passports. Perhaps the first sign that all was not as it seemed came when one Georgian photographer was told in no uncertain terms, “Take any photographs and we’ll smash your cameras.”

Already the signs were ominous and our worst fears were confirmed when an effective convoy of journalists from the BBC, ABC, CNN, Reuters, AFP, AP and many more reached the final roadblock a mile outside Gori. Refused entry, Russian soldiers instructed the media that they were not authorized to enter until an unnamed General arrived to escort us in. No prizes for guessing that the General in question never materialized.

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IDP, Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

With some very real doubts and concerns raised by Moscow’s inability to withdraw its troops from urban centers such as Gori as well as ethnic-Georgian populated towns and villages in West Georgia and South Ossetia, the number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Tbilisi is considerable.

And while the number of IDPs varies given the random and uncoordinated nature of their arrival in the Georgian capital, one thing is certain. They number in their tens of thousands and create further problems for a country still having to deal with hundreds of thousands of displaced persons from previous conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. UNHCR has already detailed the extent of the problem and its contribution to a $58.5 million emergency fund.

The latest estimates of displacement related to the conflict total more than 158,700 people – based on figures provided by the Georgian and Russian governments. It is reported that up to 30,000 people are displaced within South Ossetia. In addition, some 98,000 people are displaced in Georgia proper, including most of the population of the town of Gori. Russian officials in North Ossetia indicate some 30,000 people from South Ossetia are still in the Russian Federation.

UNHCR urgently needs additional funds to ensure continued assistance to the newly displaced population in the Caucasus region. Our part of the US$58.5 million Georgia Crisis flash appeal, launched yesterday in New York, amounts to US$16 million for the next six months. This will cover UNHCR’s protection, shelter and assistance programmes for the newly displaced in the Caucasus region.

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Russian soldier, Igoeti, Republic of Georgia © Onnik Krikorian / Oneworld Multimedia 2008

It was meant to be the day to check the situation of IDPs in Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, but a routine call to a government media coordinator changed all of that. Peter Semenby, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, and Urmas Paet, the Estonian Foreign Minister, were planning to visit Gori, the strategic town occupied by Russian forces 47 miles West of Tbilisi.

With numerous cases of journalists being targeted and even killed in and around Gori, the chance to enter was one that couldn’t be missed. The town had already been hit twice by Russian cluster bombs and most of the population had fled. South Ossetian militia were operating in the area and Georgians as well as international organization staff were most adamant — DO NOT visit Gori.

The International News Safety Institute (INSI) explains why:

Widespread looting is being reported in Gori with reports that some news teams were forced to give up their equipment.

[…]

On Sunday, a BBC team near a Russian checkpoint came under rocket fire from aircraft near Gori. No one was wounded but they had a narrow escape.

[…]

Journalists should still be extremely cautious around Gori and I would caution against going north to any of the villages en route to Tshinvali / Chinvali

[…]

Russian General Viacheslav Borisov refused to assume responsibility for lives of the journalists in Gori.

Georgian journalist of GPB TV Company Tamar Urushadze was shot presumably by sniper in live broadcast near Gori. Journalist was slightly wounded in the hand.

Four Israeli journalists, including Haaretz correspondent Anshel Pfeffer and photographer Nir Kafri, were robbed at gunpoint by Russian soldiers in the Georgian city of Gori.

Russian military attacked operator of Georgian TV Rustavi2 and threatening with gun he prevented journalist to implement his duties near Gori.

Early afternoon. 3 journalists of Canadian CBC TV including head of the Moscow office were robbed of their car, equipment and other belongings by paramilitary presumably of North Caucasian origin near Gori. Accident happened near Russian soldiers who took no efforts to stop the robbery.

[…]

Czech journalists were robbed in the vicinity of the town of Gori last night. Several persons attacked them and took away their car and video and photo cameras. The journalists have said that the assailants were not Russians. They assume that the marauders looked like Chechens. After an hour-long captivity the journalists arrived in Tbilisi on foot although they were unable to reclaim the cameras or other technical means.

[…]

A Georgian journalist covering his country’s conflict with Russia was killed Tuesday when a shell hit their car in Gori city, an AFP photographer at the scene said.

His driver also died in the mid-morning incident, said the photographer, who saw the journalist’s ID card and the stricken vehicle in the main square of Gori alongside a huge statue of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.

[…]

A Dutch television journalist was killed overnight when Russian warplanes bombed the central Georgian city of Gori.

[…]

The television news station RTL reported on its Web site that its cameraman Stan Storimans, 39, was killed and correspondent Jeroen Akkermans was wounded in the leg in the attack. RTL said, in all, five people died in the Gori bombing.

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